In fact, doomsday predictions in some Democratic circles that the decennial redistricting process would be a bloodbath for their side have not, in fact, been borne out.
With 34 states either done with redistricting or in the final stage, Wasserman calculates that President Joe Biden would have carried 161 of the 293 new districts created for the next decade in the 2020 election. That compares favorably with the 157 of 292 districts under the old maps that Biden carried.
Which is at least mildly surprising, given that Republicans had complete control of the line-drawing process in 187 seats compared with just 75 for Democrats.
Before Democrats get too excited, however, Wasserman rightly notes that many of the new districts Biden carried he had won very narrowly — and the lion’s share of them are being targeted by Republicans this November.
“House Democrats’ math problem boils down to this: even though there will be more Biden-won seats than there are now, dozens will have only voted for him by narrow margins and will be very tenuous for Democrats if Biden’s approval rating is still languishing below 45 percent.“
The Point: Democrats are hard up for positive news in advance of the 2022 midterms. At least as it looks right now, redistricting is one of a very few good stories for them.